Dell'Oro Group revises Open RAN forecasts

Dell'Oro Group published a February 2026 report that revised forecasts for Open RAN (ORAN) and related Radio Access Network (RAN) approaches, reporting changes to near-term revenue expectations and to longer-term assumptions relevant to next-generation RAN platform planning.

The report said ORAN had progressed since the ORAN Alliance formed in 2018, but that results were mixed and expectations had evolved. It revised near-term ORAN revenue expectations downward while strengthening long-term growth assumptions, and it linked those revisions to the current pace of Open Fronthaul deployment and improving strategic visibility.

The analysis stated that Open Fronthaul increasingly was being specified as a baseline capability for next-generation RAN platforms. It reduced Cloud RAN projections, noted virtualization remained a pillar of the long-term RAN roadmap, and identified performance, power, and cost-parity challenges with purpose-built RAN as factors affecting timing. The report also lowered the multi-vendor RAN projection for 2030 to under 5 percent from a prior 5 to 10 percent range.

The ORAN Advanced Research Report provided a five-year forecast covering multi-vendor and single-vendor segments, macro and small cell, regions, and baseband/radio. It included projections for virtualized RAN and a discussion of forecast drivers and risks. To purchase the report, the release listed [email protected] as the contact for sales inquiries.

“Openness, intelligence, automation, and virtualization remain key pillars in the next-generation RAN platforms,” “But the adoption curves vary. The likelihood that Open RAN, Cloud RAN, and Multi-vendor RAN will play a major role in the second half of 5G and from the start with 6G is likely, less likely, and unlikely, respectively,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN market research at the Dell'Oro Group.

The report projected that multi-vendor RAN would account for less than 5 percent of total RAN by 2030, down from the prior 5–10 percent range.