Dell’Oro Group says AI RAN planning dominates MWC 2026 while GenAI traffic remains at 0.06%

Dell’Oro Group’s MWC 2026 takeaways say mobile traffic utilization remains low and Generative AI (GenAI) accounts for about 0.06% of network traffic, shifting attention to uplink growth and Artificial Intelligence (AI) Radio Access Network (RAN) planning.

Market overview and end-user drivers

The note attributes the show’s focus to “the 0.06%” share of total network traffic from GenAI and to “mobile data traffic slowing” plus signals of “significant excess capacity.” It says Ericsson estimates uplink traffic could grow by 3x every five years and frames network differentiation and AI Edge Resource Allocator (ERA) requirements as investment drivers.

It also contrasts audience engagement with demonstrations against the view that GenAI’s present effect on mobile networks is negligible, citing Ericsson’s June 2025 Mobility Report. The report describes the investor takeaway as the idea that GenAI use is expanding while its traffic share remains small.

Two competing mobile network visions

The note describes a “telecom is dead” narrative tied to an expected plateau in smartphone video consumption and reduced need for new 6G spectrum. It also presents a “telecom is alive” vision that relies on AI-era expansion even with GenAI at 0.06% of total traffic.

In the “telecom is alive” framing, it cites expectations that new devices suited for continuous capture, analysis, and upload will change traffic patterns, with smart glasses described as a contender. It adds that machines and “Physical AI” are expected to affect consumer and enterprise usage, while fixed networks and Wi-Fi will need complementing by cellular connectivity.

AI RAN direction and GPU discussion

Dell’Oro Group says MWC reinforced its prior messaging that “AI RAN is happening (across all RAN layers)” and will play “a major role in the second half of 5G and from the outset with 6G.” It states a base case that “AI-for-RAN will dominate over the forecast period” and notes that the “GPU RAN conversation is evolving.”

The note says operators moved from asking “why GPUs might be relevant” to asking “where and when” GPUs make sense, and it characterizes expectations for Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) RAN as modest. It presents AI RAN as spanning multiple RAN layers, including the use case for dimensioning networks for the AI ERA.

Open RAN and vRAN position in the market

The report states Open RAN/vRAN/Cloud RAN received less attention at MWC than AI RAN, while describing continued relevance in the broader discussions. It lists Open FH as increasingly specified as a baseline capability for next-generation RAN platforms and cites Ericsson plans for “160 Open-RAN-proven radios by the end of 2026.”

It also says Nokia’s AI-RAN-ready Doksuri radios include compatibility with Open FH standards, and that Samsung, 1Finity, and NEC are described as proponents of Open RAN/vRAN. The note states supplier diversity “is not improving,” that RAN market concentration is increasing, and that Open RAN is “most often deployed in single-vendor configurations.”

Massive MIMO and spectrum considerations

The note says Massive Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) has enabled capacity gains and has been used to improve range while minimizing incremental cell-site investments. It estimates that “these higher-MIMO configurations accounted for roughly half of 5G RAN revenues between 2018 and 2025.”

It states that upper mid-band now covers more than 55% of the global population and says growth will become more challenging, with the note adding that focus has been on upper mid-band TDD while FDD and “6.4 GHz+ remain largely untapped” per its reading of the Ericsson Mobility Report. It lists reasons for attention on FDD Massive MIMO, including uplink traffic growth faster than downlink and improvements reducing size and improving form factors.

6G outlook and network expectations

The report says 6G was less prominent than AI RAN but describes ongoing consensus that “6G is now inevitable—focus has shifted from if to how and when.” It places expected technology ramp “around 2029/2030” and states “4–8.4 GHz is emerging as the ‘golden spectrum.’”

It adds that the existing macro grid will provide the foundation and that Massive MIMO will play a key role. It also states that sentiment is more optimistic because 6G is expected to address changing traffic patterns as machines take a larger share of total traffic and because it says “AI-native architecture will be central.”

This Analyst Signals brief reflects a neutral, fact-based summary of the original research note.