Dell'Oro Group projects microwave transmission market to grow in 2026

Dell'Oro Group reports the microwave transmission market fell 3% in 2024, showed fluctuations through 3Q25, and is projected to grow in 2026, information relevant to network capacity and planning decisions.

Market Overview

The analyst note states the market declined 3% in 2024 and that the contraction reflected several specific factors, including a sharp drop in E-band equipment purchases following a prior deployment cycle, procurement delays after vendor acquisitions, slower 5G rollouts as operators questioned ROI, and weaker macroeconomic conditions such as slower GDP growth, lower exchange rates against the U.S. dollar, and higher borrowing costs.

Key Findings

Through 3Q25 data indicate a small year-to-date increase driven by mobile backhaul sales and sustained demand in some markets, but strong growth in the first half was followed by weakness in the second half, prompting repeated reevaluation of the annual outlook.

Segment or Supplier Performance

The note attributes procurement delays and order flow disruptions to vendor transactions, noting that Ceragon acquired Siklu and Aviat acquired NEC’s microwave business, which affected order timing and supply patterns across suppliers.

Technology or Trend Analysis

Analysts report that mobile backhaul deployments continue and that verticals demand weakened, which the note links to lower government funding and project start delays; the note also states that integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications like ChatGPT on mobile devices may increase network usage.

Forecast or Analyst Outlook

The research projects the market will return to growth in 2026, driven by mobile backhaul and a recovery in verticals, and rests on an assumption that demand for mobile network capacity will revert to high double-digit growth rates as operators add cell sites and backhaul capacity while some rural broadband projects favor wireless links over fiber trenching.

This Analyst Signals brief reflects a neutral, fact-based summary of the original research note.