Recorded Future releases 2026 State of Security report

Recorded Future released its 2026 State of Security Report and presented findings at the Munich Cyber Security Conference; the report said cyber operations were now inseparable from physical conflict, coercion, and espionage.

The report identified 2025 as an inflection point when cyber activity became tightly linked to real-world geopolitical outcomes and found that adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) accelerated deception, identity abuse, and uncertainty faster than institutions could adapt, contributing to heightened instability in 2026.

The report listed several technical trends: most serious intrusions began with stolen credentials rather than technical exploits, shifting the center of gravity of security to identity and access; AI amplified deception, social engineering, and identity abuse at scale; states used cyber access at the edge of networks and connectivity infrastructure as a form of strategic leverage; and the report described durable state-aligned ecosystems including Russian influence operations backed by resilient criminal infrastructure, mercenary spyware, and North Korean access-driven sanctions evasion.

Recorded Future released the report and Co-Founder Christopher Ahlberg shared the key findings during a panel discussion at the Munich Cyber Security Conference; the company said it served over 1,900 businesses and government organizations across 80 countries.

“Cyber operations are no longer preparation for conflict — they are part of conflict,” said Disaster Recovery (DR). Ahlberg. “What we're seeing is that adversaries are logging in, not hacking in. This is a shift toward access, influence, and leverage that can be activated at moments of political or military tension, often below the threshold of traditional response.”

The report predicted that in 2026 cyber threats would be defined by fragmented, continuous pressure from persistent access, decentralized criminal ecosystems, influence operations, and synthetic identities that would replace singular attacks with continuous, low-visibility disruption.