Dell’Oro Group Finds Telecom CAPEX Flat in 2025 and Projects Decline in 2026

Dell’Oro Group reports that telecom Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) for roughly 50 service providers was flat in nominal US dollars in 2025, with operators planning more cautious spending in the near term. The outlook includes a 2026 decline and lower wireless capital intensity by 2029.

Market overview

Dell’Oro Group said worldwide telecom investments were stable in 2025, and initial estimates show telecom CAPEX was flat in nominal US dollar terms for the approximately 50 service providers it covers. The coverage represents roughly 80% of global CAPEX.

The report links CAPEX and telecom equipment revenue through six programs, including Broadband Access, Microwave & Optical Transport, Mobile Core Network (MCN), Radio Access Network (RAN), and Service Provider Router & Switch. Dell’Oro Group estimated that equipment manufacturer revenue increased 4% year-over-year in 2025.

Operator spending and equipment revenue dynamics

Dell’Oro Group said the slightly stronger equipment versus CAPEX growth can be explained by cloud providers, estimating they accounted for around half of the equipment revenue growth. The firm also described a gap between longer-term network expectations and near-term spending visibility.

“We’re seeing an interesting dynamic between long-term optimism and near-term visibility, ”said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Operators remain optimistic about the long-term network vision, particularly as AI drives new demand, but in the short term they are taking a more cautious stance, with many planning to moderate capex,” Pongratz added.

Forecast and capital intensity outlook

Dell’Oro Group projected worldwide telecom CAPEX to decline 2% in 2026 and grow at a 1% Compound Annual Growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. The report also projected that with carrier revenues increasing modestly at about a 2% CAGR, the capex-to-revenue ratio would approach 14% by 2029.

For wireless, the firm projected capital intensity to approach 11% in 2029, down seven percentage points from the 5G peak. The forecast figures were presented as part of the March 2026 Telecom CAPEX report.

Scope of the report

Dell’Oro Group’s Telecom CAPEX Report covers more than 50 telecom operators, tracking carrier revenue, CAPEX, and capital intensity trends. The report includes actual results and five-year forecasts by carrier, region, and country for the United States, Canada, China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

The firm said the report also breaks data out by technology, including wireless and wireline, and provides coverage by program for Broadband Access, Microwave & Optical Transport, Mobile Core Network (MCN), RAN, and Service Provider Router & Switch.

This Analyst Signals brief reflects a neutral, fact-based summary of the original research note.