Dell'Oro Group forecasts stable RAN revenue in 2026

Dell'Oro Group finds the Radio Access Network (RAN) market should hold steady in 2026 after revenue declines, with mixed segment performance and regional variation that affects operator Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) and network planning decisions.

Market Overview

The report notes roughly $8–9 billion of RAN revenue was erased between 2021 and 2024 and preliminary third-quarter data show market conditions continued to stabilize.

EMEA is performing better than initially expected in part due to currency movements, while 5G activity in India is below expectations because of coverage delays at smaller carriers.

Key Findings

5G now reaches about 60% of the global population according to Ericsson’s Mobility Report, and the installed base of 5G macro gNBs represents roughly half of the eventual end-state target when counting all frequency variants.

Year-over-year comparisons are becoming more challenging, but global 5G RAN growth is expected to remain modestly positive in 2026 while overall RAN revenue stays stable as declining 4G investments offset 5G gains.

Segment or Supplier Performance

Private wireless RAN revenue rose about 40% in 2024 and accelerated in 1H25, with overall private wireless growth projected to moderate to 10%–20% in 2026 and campus network RAN revenue forecast to exceed $1 billion.

Preliminary findings show the top five RAN suppliers accounted for 96% of the 1Q25–3Q25 market, up from 95% in 2024, and the base case is for concentration to remain stable or increase in 2026.

Technology or Trend Analysis

Open RAN (ORAN) growth is landing at the low end of a 5%–10% target for the year, reflecting adoption rates in the U.S., Japan, and Europe.

The note highlights select segments with favorable prospects in 2026, including 5G, Artificial Intelligence (AI) RAN, ORAN, Cloud RAN, and small cells, while overall RAN investment remains tied to traditional mobile broadband demand.

Forecast or Analyst Outlook

The analyst team expects wireless CAPEX and RAN spending to remain mostly stable in 2026, with regional variations offsetting one another as North America and APAC outside China help counter weaker investment in China.

Suppliers anticipate improved momentum around 5G SA and premium mobile broadband could support RAN prospects, but the report does not forecast a performance-differentiation CAPEX boost in 2026.

In summary, the analyst view presents a flat-growth outlook for the global RAN market in 2026 while identifying private wireless and select 5G-related segments as sources of growth. This Analyst Signals brief reflects a neutral, fact-based summary of the original research note.