Dell’Oro Group reports XGS‑PON will dominate as 50 Gbps PON slows

Dell’Oro Group forecasts broadband access equipment revenue will grow 0.3% annually from 2025–2030, peak in 2028, and finds XGS‑PON deployments will dominate as 50 Gbps Passive Optical Network (PON) deployments slow; this affects Internet Service Providers (ISP) and supplier investment planning.

Market Overview

Dell’Oro Group projects the Broadband Access Equipment market to grow at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent from 2025 to 2030, with total revenue peaking in 2028. The firm attributes market drivers to ongoing Data over Cable Service Interface Specifications (DOCSIS) 4.0 rollouts and fiber expansion by cable and fiber ISPs.

Key Findings

“We reduced our forecasts for 50 Gbps PON deployments largely because of operators’ concerns around slowing average consumption, along with the need to maintain profit levels in increasingly competitive markets,” said Jeff Heynen, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group.

“Fiber network expansions and subscriber growth will continue to be priorities, but so will the requirement that broadband services deliver value,” said Jeff Heynen, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group.

Segment or Supplier Performance

PON equipment revenue is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent from 2025 to 2030, driven largely by XGS‑PON deployments in North America, EMEA, and CALA, and by FTTR deployments in China. Revenue for cable distributed access equipment is expected to grow to $1.2 billion in 2030 as operators continue DOCSIS 4.0 and early fiber deployments.

Fixed wireless Customer Premises Equipment (CPE) revenue is expected to peak in 2026 and 2027, led by shipments of 5G sub‑6 GHz and a growing number of 5G Millimeter Wave (mmWave) units, while 802.11be (Wi-Fi 7) residential routers and Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN) CPE are forecast to reach $7.9 billion by 2028 before slowing as 802.11bn (Wi-Fi 8) units begin to ramp.

Technology or Trend Analysis

The report indicates XGS‑PON will anchor PON growth through the rest of the decade while 50 Gbps PON adoption slows. Dell’Oro Group reduced its forecast from July 2025 due to a slower ramp in 50 Gbps PON deployments globally.

Forecast or Analyst Outlook

The forecast shows moderated expectations for 50 Gbps PON deployment but continued investment in DOCSIS 4.0 and fiber expansion through 2030. PON revenue growth and specific segment peaks provide planning inputs for ISPs and equipment suppliers.

The report highlights moderated near‑term expectations for 50 Gbps PON while noting ongoing investment in XGS‑PON, DOCSIS 4.0, and fiber expansion, information relevant for ISPs and equipment suppliers. This Analyst Signals brief reflects a neutral, fact-based summary of the original research note.