Dell’Oro Group forecasts 1% CAGR for worldwide RAN market

Dell’Oro Group forecasts worldwide Radio Access Network (RAN) revenues will grow at a 1 percent Compound Annual Growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years as Long Term Evolution (LTE) declines offset 5G and initial 6G investments, a trend relevant for Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) planning.

Market Overview

The report finds RAN market conditions stabilized after steep declines in 2023 and 2024 following the 5G peak and says demand will remain muted until 6G CAPEX begins to ramp.

Key Findings

“The past couple of years have been extremely challenging with RAN shedding nearly $10 B in revenue globally,” said Stefan Pongratz.

“While there are still risks in both directions and probably still tilted to the downside due to slowing data traffic growth, the improved sentiment around 6G can be interpreted as a positive, bolstering this assumption that there could be material 6G revenue by 2030,” said Stefan Pongratz.

Segment or Supplier Performance

The report projects worldwide RAN revenues to grow at a 1 percent CAGR over the next five years and states rapidly declining LTE revenues will offset continued 5G and initial 6G investments.

The report includes manufacturers’ revenue and unit shipment tables by region for 5G 5G New Radio (NR), 5G NR Sub 7 GHz, 5G NR mmW, and LTE base stations.

Technology or Trend Analysis

The report covers Open RAN (ORAN), Virtualized RAN, small cells, and Massive Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) technologies.

Forecast or Analyst Outlook

The base case forecast is for stable RAN and CAPEX trends, resulting in further improvements in capital intensity ratios before 6G investments commence towards the end of the forecast period.

More optimistic and pessimistic outcomes are possible depending on mobile data traffic growth, timing of capacity investments, and the focus on network differentiation.

Dell’Oro Group projects modest RAN revenue growth and stable CAPEX trends over five years, with outcomes tied to traffic growth and timing of capacity investments. This Analyst Signals brief reflects a neutral, fact-based summary of the original research note.