Dell’Oro Group Forecasts $0.5 Trillion 6G RAN Capex by 2034
Dell’Oro Group projects 6G radio access network capex to reach $0.5 trillion by 2034, framing 6G as an evolution of existing 5G-era infrastructure rather than a new RAN market. For enterprise telecom planners, the forecast outlines where investment and revenue concentrate during the cycle.
Market Overview
The report describes 6G as building on massive MIMO, the existing site grid, and wider channel bandwidths under a base-case scenario. It states that cumulative 6G RAN revenue and wireless capex during the first six years are projected to exceed $100 billion and $500 billion, respectively.
On the market size, the baseline scenario projects the broader RAN market to grow at a 1% CAGR between 2030 and 2034 and says 6G is not expected to expand the overall RAN market.
Key Findings
Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom Capex Research at Dell’Oro Group, said, “At the same time, operators are in a much stronger position today from a network capacity perspective than they were during the transition from 4G to 5G.”
He added, “As a result, cumulative 6G RAN revenue during the first six years of the cycle is projected to be 10 to 20 percent lower than during the comparable period of the 5G cycle.”
Technology and Spectrum Notes
Both sub-7 GHz and cmWave spectrum bands are expected to play important roles in 6G deployments, while the report states momentum behind spectrum above 7 GHz continues to build.
The report also ties investment timing to RAN buildout, projecting that cumulative 6G RAN investments between 2029 and 2034 account for approximately half of total RAN capex during the same forecast period.
Forecast or Analyst Outlook
Dell’Oro Group’s base case expects 6G RAN capex to accelerate toward the end of the decade, with the report forecasting $0.5 trillion in 6G RAN capex by 2034.
The report labels the overall development path “evolutionary” and places 6G within the continuing progression from earlier generations of RAN deployment.
This Analyst Signals brief reflects a neutral, fact-based summary of the original research note.