Ericsson reports stable mobile traffic growth and 2.5x demand forecast through 2030

Ericsson’s Mobility Report points to moderating mobile traffic growth and continued smartphone- and FWA-led demand, with uplink traffic rising more slowly than downlink. The findings affect capacity planning and the 5G-to-6G timeline for RAN investment decisions.

Mobile traffic growth stabilizes

The report says total mobile network traffic has posted seven consecutive quarters of stable year-over-year growth in the 20% to 22% range. It also cites an Ericsson view that demand growth remains supportive of long-term RAN capacity investments despite lower growth than in the early 5G period.

Traffic forecast extends through 2030

Ericsson projects total mobile network traffic, including mobile broadband and fixed wireless access, to increase by about 2.5x between 2025 and 2030. The report frames this as roughly 20% annual growth and connects it to implications for when 6G deployments occur and the level of capacity investment during the second half of the 5G cycle.

Uplink remains a smaller share

The report states that under Ericsson’s medium- and high-uplink scenarios, uplink traffic would account for about 10% to 12% of total mobile network traffic by 2031. It adds that uplink demand could rise with AI-driven applications, while downlink continues to dominate overall network demand.

Smart glasses stay a minor device category

Ericsson estimates smart glasses shipments reached about 10 million units in 2025. The report characterizes this as roughly 1% of smartphone shipments and indicates smartphones remain the base-case driver of mobile traffic.

Satellite broadband stays limited in fixed connections

Ericsson projects satellite broadband will account for about 2% of global fixed broadband connections by 2031. It contrasts this with fixed wireless access, projected at about 17% of fixed broadband connections, positioning terrestrial wireless as the larger fixed connectivity opportunity.

Enterprise mobile investment plans support RAN demand

The report says a Dell’Oro Group analysis attributes private wireless growth of 16% in 2025 and places it at 3% to 5% of total RAN revenue. It also cites Ericsson survey results from more than 100 enterprise decision makers indicating 80% plan to increase mobile investments, including to scale AI initiatives.

Across the report’s points on traffic, device mix, fixed connectivity, and enterprise investment, the central message is that RAN demand over the next five years remains tied mainly to stable traffic growth, smartphones, FWA, and enterprise spending, with AI raising uplink requirements while downlink continues to dominate. This Analyst Signals brief reflects a neutral, fact-based summary of the original research note.