Dell’Oro Group: RAN Market Projected to Stay Flat

According to a recent report by Dell’Oro Group, the Radio Access Network (RAN) market is projected to remain flat over the next decade, prompting inquiries into its future dynamics for IT decision-makers.

Market Overview

The report highlights that since 2000, worldwide RAN revenues have only seen a 1% Compound Annual Growth rate (CAGR) in nominal USD. When adjusted for inflation, this growth appears even more limited, with questions arising as the industry moves into advanced phases of 5G and 6G research.

Future Projections

Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) research at Dell’Oro Group, noted that while the market has critical roles, factors like a slowdown in data traffic may pose risks. The expectation is for the RAN market to remain flat, driven by utilization challenges as the decade progresses.

Key Highlights from the Report

The baseline scenario in the report suggests the RAN market will not grow significantly in the next ten years. It anticipates data traffic challenges and recommends a 6G CAPEX increase, focusing on Massive Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) systems that leverage existing infrastructure.

Alternate growth scenarios hinge on the trajectory of mobile data usage and include considerations of Private Wireless and Fixed-Wireless Access (FWA) markets. Additionally, cumulative RAN investments for 6G from 2029 to 2034 could comprise 55 to 60% of total CAPEX during this forecast period.

Conclusion

This report provides a detailed analysis of the RAN market, outlining potential pathways for investments and the crucial factors influencing growth. This summary reflects a timely update on the findings shared by Dell’Oro Group.